COVID-19 vaccination plans in Latin America and the Caribbean: a multi-country comparative analysis of prioritization strategies.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to synthesize and compare the prioritization strategies outlined in the national vaccination plans (NVPs) against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) developed by countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a comparative policy analysis based on COVID-19 NVPs. METHODS: We conducted a search strategy in three stages to identify NVPs for COVID-19 across 41 countries/territories in the LAC region. Sources included official governmental repositories, complementary Google searches, and less formal documentation. We extracted key variables and conducted a comparative policy analysis based on the prioritization criteria and specific prioritization groups. RESULTS: The study identified 52 NVPs for COVID-19, corresponding to 27 (65.8 %) out of 41 countries/territories in the LAC region. Official national websites yielded documents for 12 countries. All NVPs included frontline healthcare personnel in the first prioritization phase/stage, whilst some included residents of long-term healthcare facilities, adults aged 60 years or more, and people with disabilities. The decision criteria for prioritization were declared in 14 countries/territories. Ethical considerations declared in five NVPs included human welfare, equality, solidarity, equity, and social justice as values. CONCLUSION: The early stages of vaccination rollout in LAC countries prioritized protection of the healthcare system and epidemiological risk for severe disease. Few countries included ethical considerations in their NVPs, and global inequities in vaccine access and distribution led to varied protections for vulnerable populations across LAC. This analysis highlights the need for improved emergency-response capacity, planning, and enhanced multilateral cooperation in the LAC region for future public health emergencies.

Unacceptable persistence of territorial inequalities in avoidable under-five mortality in Colombia between 2000 and 2019: a multilevel approach.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at evaluating territorial inequalities in avoidable mortality in children under 5 years of age in Colombia between 2000 and 2019. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological study. METHODS: An ecological, longitudinal, multigroup study was conducted using secondary sources. Because of the hierarchical structure of the data, the effect of territorial characteristics on the count of avoidable under-five deaths was estimated using a three-level negative binomial regression model with random intercepts for municipality and fixed intercepts for time and departments. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2019, there were 216,809 avoidable under-five deaths in Colombia (91.3% of all registered deaths of children under 5 years of age). A total of 1117 municipalities located in 33 departments were analyzed over five 4-year periods. Ecological relationships were found between avoidable under-five mortality and the percentage of adolescent births, female illiteracy, and multidimensional poverty at the municipal level (standardized mortality ratio: 1.43 95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.54 for the group with the highest level vs the group with the lowest level of poverty). Furthermore, multidimensional poverty was a confounding factor for the association between the percentage of the population living in rural areas and avoidable child mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic and avoidable gaps were observed in mortality in children aged under 5 years in Colombia, where the territory constitutes an axis of inequality. Implementing strategies and programs that contribute to improving the conditions of women and socio-economic conditions in the territories should be a priority.

Effectiveness of contact tracing to reduce fatality from COVID-19: preliminary evidence from Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: Conducting contact tracing (CT) programs in low- and middle-income countries is challenging, and there is no evidence of their effectiveness in Latin America. We evaluated the effectiveness of CT on reducing fatality from COVID-19 in Colombia. STUDY DESIGN: The study design is a retrospective cohort study with nation-wide data of suspected and confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) infection and their registered contacts. METHODS: We analyzed confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases and their chains of contact using a nation-wide registry from March 28, 2020 to January 13, 2021. To estimate the effect of CT on fatality, we adjusted a multilevel negative binomial model using the number of deaths and the number of people within a chain of contacts as the outcome variable and offset variable, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using different cutoff values of contacts traced and a logistic model for the effect of CT on death at an individual level. RESULTS: We analyzed 1.4 million cases, 542,936 chains of contact, and 46,087 deaths. Only, 5.8% of total cases and contacts were included in a chain of a case and five or more contacts. We found that tracing of at least five contacts per case reduces fatality by 48% (95% confidence interval: 45-51), and, at the current levels of tracing in Colombia, it prevents 1.8% of deaths. Results obtained from the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the reduction of fatality at an individual level and higher protective effect with the higher number of contacts traced. CONCLUSIONS: In Colombia, tracing of at least five contacts per case reduces fatality from COVID-19. The coverage and intensity of tracing needs to be increased as a strategy to mitigate fatality in Colombia.

Performance of public health surveillance systems during the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in the Americas: testing a new method based on Benford's Law.

The A(H1N1) influenza pandemic has been a challenge for public health surveillance systems in all countries. An objective evaluation has not been conducted, as yet, of the performance of those systems during the pandemic. This paper presents an algorithm based on Benford's Law and the mortality ratio in order to evaluate the quality of the data and the sensitivity of surveillance systems. It analyses records of confirmed cases reported to the Pan American Health Organization by its 35 member countries between epidemiological weeks 13 and 47 in 2009. Seventeen countries did not fulfil Benford's Law, and mortality exceeded the regional average in 40% of the countries. The results suggest uneven performance by surveillance systems in the different countries, with the most frequent problem being low diagnostic coverage. Benford's Law proved to be a useful tool for the evaluation of a public health surveillance system's performance.